If you feel like the world of mixed reality is heating up lately, you're not alone.
This past week alone moved the needle with a new generation of AR glasses from Snap and a new headset from HTC. Last week Pico, which is owned by ByteDance, also released a headset. For other product categories, three notable releases in such a short span may not seem like a lot. But in mixed reality, it's a fever pitch.
And the excitement likely won't stop there. This upcoming week, the XR needle should move even further, with Meta releasing its cheaper Quest 3s mixed reality headset. There have been quite a few rumors about what we can expect, but we won't know for sure until the likely unveil on September 25 at Meta Connect.
That being said, there is one thing I know for sure — Apple should be scared.
The anti-Vision Pro
Again, we won't know what to make of the Quest 3s until it's announced, but if the rumors we've seen thus far turn out to be true, it's everything the Vision Pro isn't.
First of all, it's set to be one of the cheapest mixed reality headsets on the market. Initial speculation is that it will sell for anywhere between $299 and $399. If it comes anywhere close to replicating what the Quest 3 can do, that's a heck of a deal—and one that feels like the antithesis of Apple's offering, which retails at a cool $3,500.
That's also $100 to $200 cheaper than the Quest 3, which currently retails for $499.
I can't stress how important price is in the nascent category of mixed reality hardware. Apple's Vision Pro does a lot — it's a beautiful piece of machinery with an impressive display, a futuristic eye-tracking input system, and a UI that rivals early iOS simplicity.
But the fact of the matter is that the vast, vast, majority of people don't yet need a mixed-reality headset, which means that they're still primarily expensive toys. It's one thing to spend $500 on a nice-to-have tech gadget, and another to break the bank on one.
If the Quest 3s can successfully lower that entry price, it opens up Meta's market to even more first-time buyers. That's the most important demographic in mixed reality right now, and even further entrenches Meta's position as the accessible headset purveyor du jour. And once people start using Meta's headsets, the chances are they'll likely want to stick with them. I'm a Quest 3 owner and am constantly impressed by how much it does and how well it does those things.
If Meta drops the price as far as we think it will, the Quest 3s isn't just another headset; it could be an enormous expansion of Meta's lead in the XR arms race.
Meta's XR commitment
Say what you will about Meta and Mark Zuckerberg, but the man seems singularly dedicated to the creation of widespread VR and XR hardware in a way that no other technocrat even comes close to.
That commitment (or obsession), coupled with the fact that Meta doesn't have its hands tied down with many other hardware commitments, means that Zuckerberg is free to pursue groundbreaking XR and VR products in a way that Apple might not.
That means, in the Quest's case, selling great products at a fairly steep loss. It's that agility and willingness to plow through the market and plant a flag that could make the Quest 3s as appealing as rumors suggest.
Meta might not need the Quest to succeed to continue as one of the biggest tech companies in the world (I'm pretty sure Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp are big enough products to constitute a tech empire), but hardware-wise, the Quest is of great importance.
Apple, on the other hand, doesn't necessarily need the Vision Pro. If Tim Cook woke up tomorrow and pulled the plug on Apple's future XR ambitions, it would be an embarrassment, but new iPhones would continue to find their way into the hands of millions of people across the world each year.
What I'm saying is, the stakes for Meta are higher. The company has invested billions into developing the future of face computing and it's clear that it has no intention of giving up the lead, whether to Apple or anyone else.
Sure, Apple has pretty much the deepest pockets out there, but remember: it's not always the biggest fighter who wins; sometimes, it's the one with the most to lose.
Gaming the system
One thing I'm curious to know is how Meta positions a potential Quest 3s. I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd almost guarantee that it leans into the headset as a tool for entertainment — gaming, watching movies, and browsing the web.
Meta notoriously had its infatuation with working in VR and XR with the Quest Pro, but that ambition seems to have fizzled out. As I mentioned before, it's clear that people are buying headsets as toys, and as far as I know, no one has ever tried to use their Game Boy to make a PowerPoint presentation.
If Meta can successfully hammer home the Quest 3s' usefulness as a tool for fun, plentiful VR and XR experiences, then it's off to a great start. Apple, on the other hand, seems to still be pursuing a more professional definition of its "spatial computer."
The Vision Pro, while still a gaming machine, emphasizes professional applications with its (honestly impressive) windowing and intuitive multitasking. There's nothing wrong with a little work — especially if your job has anything to do with design — but I still think entertainment and gaming are the most compelling initial use cases of XR headsets.
We'll have an answer soon enough
Meta's Connect conference is just days away, so we'll have an answer about what the Quest 3s is bringing to the table soon enough.
It will, of course, be a vastly different product from the Vision Pro. It definitely won't have as impressive a display or be as powerful as a computer, but for many people that won't be a dealbreaker.
Jumping straight into a premium device category like the Apple Vision Pro may work for some, but most people don't drive a Maserati as their first car. If Meta can give people a functional XR experience at a price point that speaks to their budget, it should have a smashing success.
Apple, on the other hand, could have one big headache.
